What We’re Watching: Five Credit Signals at Mid-Year

A mid-year look at the data shaping trade credit risk heading into the second half of 2026: filing volume, tariff-driven margin pressure, freight capacity exits, healthcare distress, and payment behavior abroad.

1. Bankruptcy filings are at a 16-year high

372 larger U.S. companies filed for bankruptcy protection in the first half of 2026, the highest first-half total since 2010, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Distress is running hotter below the headline number: Epiq AACER counted 1,663 small business filings over the same period, up 50% from the first half of 2025. Industrials led sector filings with 50, followed by consumer discretionary at 35 and healthcare at 26.

The composition matters as much as the count. The increase is concentrated in the middle market and below, where trade creditors typically sit unsecured and recover little once a case converts to liquidation.

2. Tariff costs are compressing manufacturing margins

Wipfli’s benchmarking survey of 456 U.S. manufacturing facilities, released July 15, found raw material pricing and the overall cost of doing business remain the industry’s top concerns, with metal formers lagging other segments on profitability. The survey flags a pass-through lag: manufacturers can eventually reprice tariff-driven input costs, but smaller suppliers negotiating with larger customers absorb the increase for months first.

A supplier that cannot reprice quickly funds the difference out of working capital. The next step in that sequence is usually slower payment to its own vendors.

3. Trucking capacity is still exiting

Carrier exits tracked by SONAR’s net revocations metric were running 31% above the same period in 2025 as of late May, while new operating authority issuances fell 22%. Filings continue to span the fleet-size spectrum, from single-truck operators to regional carriers with hundreds of trucks.

The receivable risk sits with the companies selling into the sector: parts distributors, tire and fuel suppliers, equipment lessors, and maintenance providers.

4. Healthcare filings accelerated in the first quarter

Healthcare bankruptcies rose 33% in the first quarter of 2026, with senior care companies and physician practices each recording four filings, according to Gibbins Advisors. The firm projects roughly 48 sizable healthcare cases for the full year, which would exceed 2025’s total. Distress has moved beyond hospitals into outpatient and long-term care operators with thin margins and heavy Medicaid and Medicare exposure.

Medical supply distributors, staffing firms, and service vendors to these operators carry the open-account exposure.

5. More sales on credit, and more of them late

Atradius’s May 2026 Payment Practices Barometer found trade credit has risen to 52% of B2B transactions in Western Europe as bank finance tightens, while nearly four in five companies report late payments. The same dynamic showed up in the firm’s June survey of Central and Eastern Europe, where 83% of suppliers reported late payments, and its July survey of Asian suppliers, where more than 80% reported late payments driven by customer cash flow stress.

When credit sales grow at the same time payment discipline weakens, receivables risk compounds quietly. The exposure builds on the balance sheet before it shows up in a loss.

The second half

Filing volume is elevated, tariff-exposed manufacturers are absorbing costs they cannot yet pass through, and payment behavior is loosening across major trading regions. None of these forces alone signals a credit event. Together, they raise the cost of being wrong about a customer.

If your company sells on open terms and wants a second look at its largest exposures, contact Trade Credit Group at tradecredit.io.

This article is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute insurance, legal, or financial advice. Coverage terms, conditions, and availability vary by carrier and applicant.

Sources

1. CFO Dive – US corporate bankruptcies hover at 16-year high (July 2026)

2. Wipfli – Manufacturing Benchmarking Survey (July 15, 2026)

3. IndexBox – May 2026 Trucking Bankruptcies (May 28, 2026)

4. HealthLeaders – Healthcare Bankruptcies Jump 33% in Q1 (May 2026, citing Gibbins Advisors)

5. Atradius – Payment Practices Barometer, Western Europe (May 20, 2026)

6. Atradius – Payment Practices Barometer, Central & Eastern Europe (June 17, 2026)

7. Atradius – Payment Practices Barometer, Asia (July 8, 2026)